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Croatia's Commercial Real-Estate Sector Has Stabilised, But The Outlook Remains awfully Flat At This Stage, And As Such Lags Most Property Sectors In EU, Which Have Begun To Show Evidence Of Recovery.
Croatia's commercial real estate sector has stabilised, but the lookout remains extremely flat at this point, and as such lags most property sectors in Eastern european, which have started to show signs of recovery. The commercial real estate sector has failed to rebound as the business recovery in Croatia is still extremely muted and basically export-driven.
The economic sector, which noticeably is affecting requirement for economic sector space, remains weak. Indeed, the business production index in Croatia slid by 4.1% y-o-y in February, marking the 3rd consecutive month of decline. Given that Croatia's business recovery is only in its nascent stages, it is unsurprising that industry has still to pick up. We are forecasting the Croatian economy will issue from two years of recession in 2011, but the forecast is for feeble real GDP growth of 1.9%.
The recovery will be mostly export-driven, benefiting from a positive eurozone growth story, as customer demand remains constricted by high unemployment of 19.6% in February and feeble credit growth. One positive aspect for the growth outlook for Croatia is tourism. Croatia is heavily dependent on tourism for industrial expansion and it is so encouraging to see that traveller arrivals have recently bounced back strongly. The rebound in service exports will, in turn, reduce unemployment, which we see moderating in 2011 as seasonal employment picks up. We predict 2.0% growth in private consumption in 2011, following a 0.9% drop in 2010.
Rationally, demand for office space and retail space is hardly growing. Economic space demand has hardly ticked up. We saw falls of 20-30% in rental prices for office space between the 1st half of 2009 and the second half of 2010. Retail leases fell by 30-40%. Industrial properties bucked the trend, with leases recovering 20-30% in the same period. But industrial property leases have now stalled. We see leases and yields remaining basically flat through 2011 and 2012. Broadly, we think that rates are rather vulnerable in the Zagreb area, will remain unvaried on low activity in the Zadar area, but have upside potential in the area around Split where some new commercial properties are going to be developed by foreign investors. Hence you still can buy some Croatia real estate if you curious about life in Croatia.
It is tricky to envisage any voiced recovery in the outlook period. The business recovery will be slow and export-oriented. Unemployment remains stubbornly high. With its economy on a slow growth course there is not any reason to expect a big recovery for Croatia's commercial real estate sector at this point.
Some of the key opportunities currently in the estate market are :
- The business environment improves more than predicted, assisted by export growth, tourism expansion and an improvement in consumer demand. Unemployment would need to begin to fall.
- Extension of credit availability to both developers and home house buyers, adding more space and more demand. This could indeed be boosted if Croatia's advent talks are positive.
- Strength in the office sector means that vacancy rates have dropped but that projects coming online in 2011 will make sure that demand can be met. Some key risks to the present housing market are :
- If Croatia doesn't complete ECU advent this can indeed prove a negative for financier sentiment and in investment in Croatia, which would have a negative knock-on effect on the commercial property sector.
- Should ongoing far-ranging political protests return to violence, as was seen in February, this would probably weigh heavily on Croatia's appeal as a tourism hotspot, as reported tagza.com.
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